PUBG developer publishes loot box drop rates

In a refreshingly upfront set of patch notes today, the team behind Playerunknown’s Battlegrounds listed out the odds at which their newest line of cosmetic items show up in loot crates. It’s a first for them, and may be a response to their movement into the Chinese market where there are a different set of regulations about loot crates. Nevertheless, it raises the question: Just how likely are you to find that fancy t-shirt or leather jacket that you had your eye on?

In Battlegrounds, the only way to earn loot crates is by playing well. The more hits you land on your opponents, the more downs and kills you get all contribute to the amount of in-game currency you receive at the end of a match. That currency, called Battle Points (BP), can then be cashed in for crates.

Once you accumulate enough BP, you’re given a selection of crates to choose from. Different crates contain different types of gear, but regardless of how many chicken dinners you win on the regular you can never get more than six crates per week.

That’s six rolls of the dice, maximum. And, as it turns out, the odds of one of those rolls turning up the most sought after items is fantastically low. (The most common drops are in the new “Biker” crates: the Long-sleeved T-shirt (Red) and School Shoes (Brown) each have a 15 percent drop chance.)

And here are the odds on the rarest items, all found in PUBG’s new free Biker crates, from today’s patch notes:

• Aviator Goggles : 0.03%
• Sleeveless Biker Jacket (Brown) : 0.01%
• Sleeveless Biker Jacket (Black) : 0.01%
• Cloth Mask (Checkered) : 0.01%

If you want a checkered bandana to tie around your avatar’s face, that item will only drop once in every 10,000 loot crates. Because of the six-crate limit, it would take you more than 4,100 weeks to open that many crates. As Ars Technica points out, that’s about 80 human years.

Suffice it to say, Battlegrounds is not a game for completionists.

Adding complexity to the situation, however, is the fact that not every crate will be free to open. When this latest patch arrives on live servers some time in the near future the plan is for some — but not all — crates to require a $2.50 key. It’s the same monetization scheme that PUBG Corp. rolled out for Gamescom last year and they’re sticking to it, despite the controversy.

Of course, if you really, really want one of these ultra-rare items, someone is willing to sell you one on the Steam Community Market. There, players can sell individual items, or can sell the crates themselves. The highest-priced item right now in the market is the Playerunknown Set, which contains the game’s iconic hooded leather trench coat among other cosmetic items. That’ll set you back a cool $1,937. Rest assured both Valve and PUBG Corp. will see some of that revenue along with the seller.