clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

The full 2024 Oscar nominations list — and predictions for who wins

Things you enjoyed this year may actually be up for Academy Awards

Matt Patches is an executive editor at Polygon. He has over 15 years of experience reporting on movies and TV, and reviewing pop culture.

2024 might be the Academy Awards’ biggest year in ages. The Oscar nominations, announced on Tuesday, Jan. 23, will honor highly regarded films from around the world, performances that premiered in theaters and on streaming, and a few of the biggest movies of the year — including the Barbenheimer double feature of Oppenheimer and Barbie. It’s been a slow crawl back from the hazy pandemic era, where movies that kinda sorta came out in time won Best Picture, but here we are, with a set of nominations that stands to be both predictable and electrifying.

How predictable? Here is the full list of 2024 Oscar nominations and who or what we think could win. Or maybe even more fun: who or what could surprise with an upset.

Best Picture nominations and predictions

Cillian Murphy holds his hand over his eye as he contemplates horrors in Oppenheimer.
Thinking real hard about Oscar noms
Image: Universal Pictures

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

What will win? Hovering at “If anything beats Oppenheimer, I will eat a shoe” levels of confidence that Oppenheimer will win.

Who could upset? The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall made bigger splashes than expected — could the expanded, more international voting base drive them to win? Neither feel as zeitgeisty as Parasite, but you never know.

Best Director

Justine Triet — Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Interest

Who will win? Nolan, as a makeup for not giving him 100 Oscars for Tenet (Oppenheimer is pretty good too).

Who could upset? There is a lot of love for Glazer and his deeply unsettling vision for The Zone of Interest. If voters wanted to break up the love, they could hand Oppenheimer a Best Picture win and stiff Nolan in favor of the other British filmmaker.

Best Actor

Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper — Maestro
Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo — Rustin

Who will win? This one feels tight, with Murphy and Giamatti picking up a ton of praise from different voting bodies over the season and Wright being a dark-horse favorite, but the impact of Oppenheimer across other categories might give Murphy the lead. No, it’s not fair that he got to emote that hard in IMAX.

Who could upset? If it’s not Murphy, it’s Giamatti. If it’s not Giamatti, it’s Murphy.

Best Actress

Ernest (Leonardo DiCaprio, in tan suit and cowboy hat) comforts his wife Mollie (Lily Gladstone) as she leans against him in front of a furniture-store window in Killers of the Flower Moon
Lily Gladstone and Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon
Image: Paramount Pictures/Everett Collection

Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall
Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
Annette Bening — Nyad
Carey Mulligan — Maestro
Emma Stone — Poor Things

Who will win? A close call between two Stones, but even with the season equally divided between them, I am leaning toward Lily Gladstone, who enters the arena with the aura of breakout energy.

Who could upset? Everyone thinks it’s a race between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone but I’d watch out for the global love for Hüller.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown — American Fiction
Ryan Gosling — Barbie
Robert De Niro — Killers of the Flower Moon
Mark Ruffalo — Poor Things
Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer

Who will win? Ryan Gosling is happy to be there, but this is def going to Robert Downey Jr. for reminding us all he’s A Pretty Good Actor, Actually.

Who could upset? If the cultural phenomenon of Barbie feels underrepresented in this year’s ceremony, Gosling could come through with an upset.

Best Supporting Actress

America Ferrera — Barbie
Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers
Jodie Foster — Nyad
Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer

Who will win? Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been sweeping this category at critics groups and bigger award season stops, like the Golden Globes. Buy stock now!

Who could upset? Nyad scored nominations for both its main actors, suggesting there’s still some love for these old fashioned star-driven vehicles. Seeing Foster kill it weekly on True Detective: Night Country could actually give her some momentum here.

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Who will win? The Holdovers has the stamp of approval from other categories, but I would not put it past Anatomy of a Fall to get its big win here. People love the movie!

Who could upset? Past Lives only scored two nominations — for Original Screenplay and frickin’ Best Picture. Voters may want to couple the top-prize nom with this smaller category.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Internet

Who will win? Oppenheimer might have the fuel, but this might be the place voters think to reward Gerwig’s take on a toy-based movie, especially since they snubbed her in director.

Who could upset? But even the Oppenheimer script has weird hype. Did you know Nolan wrote it in first person?

Here are the rest of the 2024 Oscars nominations — watch out for predictions soon!


Best International Feature Film

Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest

Best Animated Feature Film

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse

Best Cinematography

El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Best Production Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Best Costume Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Best Hairstyling and Makeup

Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Best Film Editing

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Best Sound

The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects

The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

Best Original Song

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For” from Barbie

Best Original Score

American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Best Documentary Feature Film

Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Best Documentary Short Film

The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai & Wai Po

Best Live-Action Short Film

The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White, and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best Animated Short Film

Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

The next level of puzzles.

Take a break from your day by playing a puzzle or two! We’ve got SpellTower, Typeshift, crosswords, and more.