Xbox Scorpio might be $499.99, and that would be a huge mistake

Microsoft would score a major win in the console wars by pricing the Xbox Scorpio at $399.99, but there’s little evidence that the company is willing to go that low for the pricing. It would be a wise play, but it’s unlikely to happen.

This is a conversation that’s getting play again, outside of the standard speculation about pricing, because video game industry host and bon vivant Geoff Keighley has already made the rare show of claiming that the price will be $499.99, although he also left himself plenty of wiggle room in case something changed. He later repeated that price in a NeoGaf post.

It’s very likely that Microsoft had a long and complicated argument about what the best price would be, and it’s even possible that this isn’t a settled issue. For all we know Microsoft leaked a price to Keighley as a way to get it out there and is gauging the reaction.

The PlayStation 4 Pro was released at $399.99, and could be getting a price drop at Sony’s press event. That low price has meant that, in the past six months, around one in every five PlayStation consoles sold is a Pro. And Sony is already enjoying a significant lead in hardware sales.

Hell, if I was inside Microsoft and wanted a bit more evidence to get to the $399.99 price this would be an effective way to do that: Get the negative reaction to the $499.99 price out in the open and then point to it as proof Microsoft has to go lower if it hopes to release more than a niche product at a niche price.

That may also be reading way too much into this tweet, but getting the price out via someone with a good reputation in gaming but who doesn’t often leak this sort of thing would give Microsoft some solid data from at least the hardcore audience.

Microsoft has also been hinting that the price would be high for a long time, stating that the console would be aimed at enthusiasts who want to be sure they have the best-looking version of each game. Without paying thousands of dollars for a gaming PC, at least. It’s not just that Scorpio will be more powerful than the rest of the consoles on the market, it will be significantly more powerful than everything else. And power costs money.

But this conversation actually puts Microsoft in a good place leading up to the press conference. If the Scorpio launches at $499.99, the expectation will have already been set. The negative reaction has largely zipped around the audience that pays close attention to the speculation and leaks.

But if it comes in at $399.99? Everyone will be ecstatic, and it’s possible that’s the goal with signaling a higher price ahead of time. Make the system look and feel like an expensive, absurdly powerful beast and then wow us with a lower than expected price.

The question is whether Microsoft wants a super powerful system that very few people buy but everyone talks about ($499.99) or if Microsoft is hoping to actually expand its user base ($399.99). Microsoft is already selling fewer consoles than Sony, and if Scorpio’s price is higher than PlayStation 4 Pro it would likely mean fewer than one in five Xbox consoles would be Scorpio, while selling in lower volume total. At $499.99 product may be discussed online, but next to no one will buy it.

We’re hours away from finding out.